Trade Up Calculator

You can think of it as a trade-by-barter system only that you’d exchange several low-quality items for a higher one. So, the trade-up feature in CS:GO allows players to exchange ten lower-tier weapons for one higher-tier skin. This is not the only system available to upgrade your inventory, but this mainly adds an element of excitement and strategy to the game. 

When you get to understand the metrics behind trading up contracts, you tend to make more informed decisions that will increase your chances of landing valuable skins, just like the famous Case Hardened AK-47 

With these critical elements of a trade-up contract, which I’ll share below, you can be sure of the right track to obtaining your desired weapon skin. 

We’ll begin by sharing some tips and tricks for Counter-Strike beginners who want to trade their weapon skins in CS:GO. 

If you’re new to trades-up, an essential arsenal of tips and tricks can set you up for better times with better odds. 

Understanding Float Values

• Float Scale: Learn how the float scale works and how it affects skin condition.
• Float Tools: Utilize tools and websites that help you identify and calculate float values.

Budget Management

• Set a Budget First, determine a budget for trade-ups. Then, stick to it.
• Cost-Effective Trades: Focus on cost-effective trade-ups to minimize potential losses.

Pattern Recognition

• Pattern Guides: Use guides and resources to familiarize yourself with desirable patterns.
• Pattern Check: Do you fall into the pattern check trap? It’s the habit of constantly checking your skins, even when you haven’t traded up. Make sure you’re checking the suitable skins for the right reasons. 

All these tips will be extensively discussed in this article. So be sure to read to the end. 

Next, we will examine some critical foundational elements of a trade-up contract that every player needs to have at the tip of their fingers. 

Let’s define what a key element is so you understand. A key element is the basic building block that makes up the mechanics (i.e., the particular way something works) and determines how the trade-up contract functions. 

Think of it as understanding how the makeup of a house is built. You’d have to start from a house plan and then move to the foundation before you get a complete building. This is the key element to a trade-up contract – the nitty gritty that makes the complete build-up. 

Let’s examine them below:

1. Ten Skins Requirement

One of the most fundamental aspects of the Trade-up contract is the requirement to trade ten skins of the same rarity. Every player must have sufficient skins before upgrading to a new and higher one. 

The process is straightforward: Players should select the skins from their CS:GO inventory (N.B., the skins must all be of the same rarity level). For instance, if players want to trade up a “Restricted” rarity skin, they must trade ten “Mil-Spec” rarity skins. 

This requirement encourages players to gather and trade multiple skins, fostering a dynamic in-game economy. 

2. Randomness

The exciting part about trade-ups, which can sometimes be frustrating for players, is that you only sometimes get what you want. Trade-ups are inherently random in their outcomes. When a player submits their tens skins, the game randomly selects one skin from the pool of possible higher-rarity skins that can be obtained from the collection where the traded skin belongs. 

However, the results you get can be influenced by the selection of your ten traded skins. For example, if you choose to use skins from specific collections, the pool of potential outcomes will be limited to higher-rarity skins from those collections.

3. Float Values

The last of the key elements we will be looking at – is float values. 

So, what are float values? This simply means the exact condition or precise wear of a weapon’s skin. The float value always ranged between 0 and 1. In this case, 0 would represent the minor wear (Factory New) to 1.00 (Battle-Scarred), significantly impacting the skin’s visual appearance and market value. This means that the lower the float value of your skin, the lesser the external wear. 

That makes you understand that the condition of your resulting skin is always determined by the average value of the ten skins you traded in the contract. So, to get a skin in better condition, you must carefully select and input weapon skins with lower float values. 

Many players blunder in this aspect and need to get valuable weapon skins.  

We categorized the float values below so you’re not confused about them. 

• Factory New: Represent weapon skins in pristine condition, like new off the shelf. Their float value ranges from 0 to 0.07 
• Minimal Wear: This category shows slight signs that it has been used but is barely noticeable. The float value for this is between 0.07 to 0.15
• Field-Tested: This weapon skin has been used more, with some scratches and wear. Float value ranges from 0.15 to 0.38
• Well-Worn: These are weapon skin that has been used and worn, with significant scratches and color fading. Their float value ranges from 0.38 to 0.45 
• Battle-Scarred: These are heavily used and damaged weapon skins with many scratches and wear. The float values this is within the range of 0.45 to 1.00 

With this, you can know how valuable your inventory is when you step up your game by trading up for better weapon skin.

Using the trade-up calculator is one way to maximize your chance of obtaining a specific skin through trade-up contracts in CS:GO.  

These calculators consider various factors, such as the skins being traded, their float values, and the desired outcome, to give players the probability of success.

Steps to Use a Trade-Up Calculator

Step One: Select Skins

• The first step in using a trade-up calculator is to select the ten skins you plan to trade up. 
• These skins must be of the same rarity and from collections that can produce the desired outcome. 

You need to be careful when choosing the skins, considering their float values and the collections they belong to. Players can ensure they start with the correct skins by inputting these details into the calculator.

Step Two: Input Float Value 

• The next thing to do is enter the float values of each skin. 
• The trade-up calculator will then average the float values of the ten skins and apply a slight random variance to predict the float value of the new skins. 

Ensure you constantly input accurate float values, which is essential for obtaining reliable calculations.

Step Three: Choose Desired Outcome

• After entering the skins and their float values, players must specify the skin they aim to receive. For instance, a player wanting a Case Hardened AK-47 should select this as the desired outcome. 
• The calculator will automatically factor in the skins’ collections and float values to estimate your probability of receiving the specified skin. 

This step helps in setting clear expectations for the trade-up process.

Strep Four: Calculate Probability

Once you have attributed all the necessary information, the trade-up calculator will provide the probability of receiving the desired skin. This probability is based on the trade-up contract’s randomness and the inputted skins’ specifics. The calculator may show the percentage chance of getting the Case Hardened AK-47 or any other desired skin, helping players understand their odds before committing to the trade.

In the next section, let’s discuss how trade-up calculators determine probability in CS:GO. 

If you want to improve your strategy in acquiring specific skin, understanding probability in CS:GO is important. Although the official algorithm CS:GO uses to determine these odds is private, TradeUpSpy offers a method based on the pool of outcomes theory. 

This approach, used by TradeUp Spy, has been tested and validated by many users. It focuses on the number of outcomes a collection has in a given rarity to establish probabilities.

One of the most profound ways to determine probabilities in CS:GO is by understanding the pool of outcome theory. Let’s take a deep dive into that. 

The Pool of Outcomes Theory

The pool of outcomes theory states that every skin you add to a trade-up contract will always contribute to the probability pool based on its collection and the number of potential outcomes. 

In simpler terms, think of it like a lottery where each skin you add is like a ticket. You get three tickets if you add a skin from a collection with three possible outcomes. If you add multiple skins from that collection, you get more tickets, increasing your chances of getting one of those outcomes.

Let’s consider some examples

1. Single Collection Trade-Up

To better understand how this theory works, let’s examine a single collection trade-up using Industrial grade skins from the Dust 2 collection. The Dust 2 collection has three potential outcomes at the next rarity level: the SG 553, M4A1-S, and PP-Bizon.

If a player inputs 10 Industrial grade skins from the Dust 2 collection into a trade-up contract, the calculation for the probabilities will proceed as follows:

• Each outcome (SG 553, M4A1-S, and PP-Bizon) gets ten ballots because each input skin contributes equally to each potential outcome.
• This results in 30 ballots (10 for SG 553, 10 for M4A1-S, and 10 for PP-Bizon).

When determining the probability of receiving each skin, the calculations are:

• SG 553: 10 ballots out of 30, or 10/30, which equals 33.33%.
• M4A1-S: 10/30, which equals 33.33%.
• PP-Bizon: 10/30, which equals 33.33%.

Each of these probabilities reflects the equal distribution of chances among the three possible outcomes due to the uniform contribution of the input skins.

2. Double Collection Trade-Up

Let’s consider a more complex scenario involving a double collection trade-up. This example uses Mil-Spec grade skins from the Dust 2 and Control collections. The Dust 2 collection has only one outcome (P2000), while the Control collection has three outcomes (Five-SeveN, UMP-45, and FAMAS).

Suppose a player inputs nine Mil-Spec skins from the Dust 2 collection and one Mil-Spec skin from the Control collection. In that case, the probability calculation changes due to the different number of outcomes in each collection:

• The Dust 2 collection contributes nine ballots for the P2000.
• The Control collection contributes one ballot each for the Five-SeveN, UMP-45, and FAMAS, resulting in 3 ballots in total.

The total number of ballots is 12 (9 from Dust 2 and 3 from Control). The probabilities are calculated as follows:

• P2000: 9 ballots out of 12, or 9/12, which equals 75%.
• Five-SeveN: 1 ballot out of 12, or 1/12, equals 8.33%.
• UMP-45: 1/12, which equals 8.33%.
• FAMAS: 1/12, which equals 8.33%.

This example demonstrates that the distribution of input skins affects the probabilities of each outcome. While one might initially assume that inputting nine skins from Dust 2 would result in a 90% chance of getting a skin from the same collection, the actual probability is lower (75%) because of the impact of the single Control skin and its three possible outcomes.

Next, we see how to manipulate Filler’s skin in CS:GO to achieve our desired outcome

Filler skins are simply low-value skins that players use to fill out their trade-up contracts. So when players need to balance the overall cost of the trade-up while still targeting specific high-value outcomes, they apply filler skin. 

Knowing how to use this will most likely put the odds in your favor

Let’s look at the simple steps to achieve this: 

Step One: Select Filler Skins

When selecting filler skins, you must consider the following factors. 

• Float Values: Ensure that your filler skins have float values to help you achieve the desired average float for the trade-up. This will undoubtedly influence the condition of the resulting skin you get.

• Collection Diversity: You should also use filler skins from collections with fewer or less desirable outcomes to increase the probability of obtaining the desired skin from the primary collection.

Let’s consider an example: 

Suppose you want a specific skin from the Control collection, such as the Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard. You could use the following strategy:

• Primary Skins: Select six skins from the Control collection.
• Filler Skins: Choose four skins from a collection with fewer outcomes, such as the Dust 2 collection.

This setup might result in the following distribution:

• 6 ballots for Five-SeveN, UMP-45, and FAMAS (Control)
• Four ballots for P2000 (Dust 2)

With a total of 10 ballots, the probabilities are:

• Five-SeveN, UMP-45, and FAMAS each: 610=60%\frac{6}{10} = 60\%106​=60%
• P2000: 410=40%\frac{4}{10} = 40\%104​=40%

Using more skins from the Control collection will likely increase the chances of obtaining a skin from that collection.

A particularly good trade-up can be very rewarding and help you boost your inventory, not to mention the satisfaction of showing off some desirable skins. A few key strategies can help you find excellent and successful trade-ups. 

Here are several approaches you can train yourself to look out for.

1. Weekly Trade-Up Recommendations: Check out for “hot trade-ups” that have been thoroughly researched and proven profitable. 

2. Utilizing Trending Data: This section will track the most popular skins that are usually combined, their float values, etc. This means you can learn new trade-up strategies and replicate the results from other players.

3. Engaging with the Discord Community: Join the CS:GO  discord server called Trade up community, where members post new ideas and talk about the CS:GO on the economy and other topics – a constant source of new, profitable trading opportunities. 

Known in the business as UVs, or ‘underlays’, they are an ongoing source of new, profitable trading opportunities. Get involved, and you’ll be a step ahead of the pack. 

4. Learning from Experienced Traders: Top traders in the community share their tips. The community consists of many members and partners who are professional or long-time traders. If you pay attention to their trading, they might expose the easiest way to find and enter winning trade-ups.

6. Staying Updated with Market Trends: Keep an eye on market trends to learn where to trade up. Monitor the CS:GO values, economic situation, skin prices, and float levels, make informed decisions about your trades and utilize our Discord community channels, skins trending data page, and partner content to stay up-to-date with the current market movements.

We can help you save a little money on those and maximize the efficiency of your trade-ups. 

Here, I will share simple tips for finding these skins without spending much money.

1. Utilize Marketplaces

• Steam Community Market: This is the most accessible place to buy CS:GO weapon skins. You can filter the skins by price, rarity, and float value, but you might have to pay more here due to Steam’s 15 per cent transaction fee.
• Third-Party Marketplaces: These independent websites, such as CS.MONEY, BitSkins, or SkinBaron commonly offer cheaper deals for skins than the Steam Market, with lower fees, fewer chargebacks by default, and more willing buyers or sellers. 

Do not be duped by scams. You should be good to go if you deal with reputable sites like the ones I’ve mentioned.

• Trading Websites: CSGO skin trading sites such as CSGOTrader and TradeIt.gg let you trade items directly with other players, which can be cheaper if you have unwanted skins to barter.

2. Set Up Alerts and Watchlists

You need to browse the various entities that share similar items. However, most of the marketplaces – Leviathan being one – have alerts that enable you to monitor certain skins and float values. If an item that fits your criteria is listed, you will receive immediate feedback and have a chance to snag the best deal at the first instance.

3. Buy in Bulk

There is, however, a way to get a lower price by purchasing skins in bulk. Sometimes, by buying several at a time, sellers might be willing to give you a discount or ‘bundle’ deal. This happens more often in third-party marketplaces and trading sites.

4. Check Float Value Aggregators

CSGOFloat.com, CS.MONEY and similar websites have built-in tools that help you find low-float skins with precise in-game behavior. For instance, CS.MONEY has a search tool that can scan through the Steam Market or third-party services to produce a list of items with the exact float you want. Example: yet another spin of a slippery knife in the marketplace. Using one of these aggregators would take mere seconds to locate cheap low-float skins.

5. Join CS:GO Trading Communities

Get joining trading communities on Reddit (r/GlobalOffensiveTrade) and Discord. These are great places to find great deals, and members typically share their listings and offers. You can also post what you’re looking for, and other members will get in touch to offer:

Case Hardening in CS:GO is a hybrid type of skin assigned to specific weapons, such as the AK-47, that emulates case-hardened metal in real life, where the steel in the metal is left untreated to allow it to oxidize with salts, creating unique and varied colorations that often blacken near the surface and fade away into a brilliant silver. Despite these skins having an identical base, the final look of each Case Hardened skin is unique and cannot be replicated, so it is highly sought after.

The Unique Patterns

Case Hardened AK-47 skins each have a different combination of blue, gold, and silver hues. These are created by a virtual process that simulates real-world case hardening, and every Case Hardened AK-47 is unique. Patterns vary from spots of thin blue covering to significant, full-blue sections. Collectors favor the sections most densely covered in blue, mainly if they cover a large area of the weapon, specifically the body and top. These are aptly called ‘Blue Gems’ and can sell for 100 times their price without the desirable pattern.

One of the most iconic and desirable skin players would empty their inventory for in a Counter-Strike global offensive is the Case Hardened AK-47. Its allure comes from each skin’s unique pattern, making every Case Hardened Ak-47 distinct. 

The value of these skins can vary significantly based on the specific pattern, with some patterns being sporadic and highly coveted by collectors.

When a Case Hardened skin is generated, the blue, purple, and gold hues form a random pattern on the weapon’s surface. This randomness ensures that no two Case Hardened AK-47s are identical, adding a layer of exclusivity to each skin. Players and collectors often spend significant time and resources searching for patterns that they find visually appealing or with higher market value. This uniqueness makes the skin highly desirable and creates a sense of personal attachment for players who own a particularly striking pattern.

Let’s consider some of the factors affecting the value of Case Hardened AK-47.

Factors Influencing the Value

1. Pattern Rarity

Some are significantly more valuable than others due to their rarity among the various patterns. The most coveted pattern is the “Blue Gem” pattern, which features a high concentration of blue on the weapon. 

Blue Gem patterns are sporadic and can fetch exorbitant prices on the market. CS:GO collectors and enthusiasts are always willing to pay premium prices for these rare patterns, which eventually increase their value. 

2. Popularity of the AK-47

The AK-47 is one of the most popular weapons in CS:GO, and it is known for its power and versatility. This popularity extends to its skins, making the demand for AK-47s, including the Case Hardened variant, consistently high. 

The weapon’s widespread use in the game means that players frequently want to customize their AK-47s with unique and visually striking skins. With this high demand, the Case Hardened AK-47 is expected to remain a valuable and sought-after item in the Counter-strike market.

#1 Pattern (Full Blue Top)

Popularly referred to as a full blue top, this pattern has the bold blue color covering the entire top of the gun, making it the rarest and most desirable C1 magnum – with correspondingly high prices. 1.2mm.

 #2 Pattern: Full blue Magazine

Its lovely, intense blue is one of the most desired patterns. And consequently, most collectable.22

 #3 Blaze or Blue Blaze

Pronounced streaks or patches of blue running across large portions of the gun, this type contrasts most noticeably with the red color of the gunmetal and can command substantial prices at the market. 

 #4 Pattern (Blue Gem with Gold or Purple) 

This blue gem pattern version is rich in gold and purple accents. It forms a complex and vibrant gemstone that collectors value for being challenging to find and for the intricate mix of colors. 

 #5 Pattern (Half Blue Top) 

Demonstrating distinct blue coloration on the top of the bird and nothing else, the story of the bird’s life does not lose its appeal due to color contrast; birds with intense blue on the upper parts often command higher prices. Prices vary depending on the density and distribution of the blue coloration.

 #6 Pattern (Light Blue / Sky Blue)

Lighter shades of blue (maybe sky blue, maybe baby blue, perhaps aqua) accentuate the softer hue in this pattern, which is often sought out for that exact reason. Since lighter shades typically aren’t as intense (or ‘saturated’ in art-world lingo), lighter blues can also be easier on the wallet.

 #7 Pattern (Blue Tip or Blue Tip with Gold)

It features a blue tip or trims at the top with embellishments such as gold, and its blue varies in color and distribution. It is chosen for the exciting design elements and not necessarily for the uniformly blue line color. 

Each pattern has a value depending upon its rarity, the degree of ‘blue’, and how aesthetically pleasing it is. Professional traders and collectors of these AK-47 Case Hardened ‘Blue Gem’ patterns constantly monitor market trends.

1. Gold Gem 

Highly saturated gold or yellow hues combine with blue or sky patterns. Often, the pattern is swirling or spotty gold over a backdrop of blue, making a striking and wealthy appearance.

2. Purple Gem Plumbago

Regular purple shades with blue patterns. Depending on the variety, plumbago is more or less subtle. Plumbago is a light pattern of silver/blue that crisscrosses the face of the gemstone, often giving the appearance of warmth, depth, or lustre.

3. Rainbow Gem

A multi-colored mana pattern, sometimes with a diamond shape, in which individual flesh sacs are colored blue, purple, gold, and often green or red. It is one of the most brilliant tropical patterns, and it is valued by collectors who desire some skin variety in their assortments.

4. Silver Gem 

This shows a silver or grey wolf with blue patterns shedding. The wolf’s hairs are silver-blue at the puppy’s age, and the young wolf’s beard is silver-grey with blue patterns.

 5. Oceanic Gem

This is similar to the patterns you see in oceanic thematic creations. The pattern represents a coral landscape or waves, with swirls of blue and green. This pattern marks a calm aquatic surrounding and is identified by the varying intensity and distribution of blue and green hues.

One of the most exciting things you can do in CS:GO is trade up your old weapons inventory for case-hardened AK-47 skins. Some weapons, such as a Case Hardened AK-47, can be worth thousands of dollars. Currently, the odds are in your favor, and you can use float values and the trade-up calculator to improve your chances of getting good loot. 

Of course, risks are still present, but the potential rewards are worth it for many traders. We wrote this guide to help beginners and experienced traders simplify the process. Use this article’s tools to navigate the CS: GO trade-up system.

1. Can the float value of a skin change after a trade-up?

 No, the float of any skin is once and for all at the time the skin is created. The output skin from a trade-up contract will have a float corresponding to the average float of the ten input skins, but there’s nothing you can do after a trade-up contract is carried out to change that.

2. What happens if I trade up skins with mixed float values?

Consequently, if you trade up several skins with mixed float values, the resulting skins will have the average float value of the input skins. Your trading-up chance is based on this average float. (The float value of a weapon skin determines its condition level from the highest level, Factory New, to the lowest level, Battle-Scarred.)

3. How does the skin collection affect the outcome of a trade-up contract?

The skin collection determines the space of outcomes. Each skin in a trade-up contract is from a particular collection, and any possible outcome of a trade-up contract will be a skin of the same rarity tier from that collection. The number of possible skins from the collections involved probabilistically assigns each outcome.

4. Can I guarantee a specific skin from a trade-up contract?

No, you can’t force out a particular skin from a trade-up contract when each roll is technically independent. But a Trade Up Calculator can help maximize your odds of pulling a fortunate skin from the never-ending pile of CMs. 

5. Why do some Case-Hardened AK-47s with similar patterns have different values?

 Yet two identical-looking Case-Hardened AK-47s can be drastically different in price according to factors such as their float value and where the Pattern appears on the top or body of the AK, not to mention the market demand for the item. A pattern can be different only slightly, making a difference in the view of the item’s rarity and desirability.

6. Is there a community consensus on the most valuable Case-Hardened patterns?

 While most observers agree that patterns with the highest possible percentage of blue (such as the full blue top or full blue magazine) are from the top rank, the order of the others can be debated. Collectors’ preferences and market trends can sway opinions on the most popular or favored. 

7. How do seasonal events or updates impact the value of Case-Hardened AK-47s?

 Skin values fluctuate depending on seasonal events, updates, and current changes to CS’s economy, such as the release of new cases, an alteration of drop rates, or a significant update to the game’s meta (its internal balance) that alters the desirability of existing items.