What Are The Chances Of Getting A Knife In CS2?

Before we get into the main topic, let’s ensure you’re well-informed on everything about CSGO knives. The only way you can get a knife in CSGO is through buying it from another player, or unboxing it from a weapon case. You cannot get insanely lucky and receive a knife as an item drop after finishing a game, so you must be ready to spend some money either way.

Understanding How Weapon Cases Work

In Counter-Strike, players can unbox weapon cases that contain skins. Most of its contents are weapon skins that alter the look of guns. However, there is always an exceedingly rare special item in these cases, which are knives. Since knives are the rarest item in a weapon case, the chances of unboxing it are incredibly low, so you shouldn’t expect to unbox a knife on your first ten tries.

Cases That Contain Knives In CSGO

Back then, knives were the rarest items in Counter-Strike and had the lowest odds of being unboxed. However, Valve introduced gloves into the game, which shared the same rarity as knives. As a result, some cases drop gloves instead of knives.

If you are specifically looking for a knife and not a pair of gloves, you can expect to unbox one in any of these cases if you’re lucky.

• CS:GO Weapon Case
• CS:GO Weapon Case 2
• CS:GO Weapon Case 3
• eSports 2013 Case
• eSports 2013 Winter Case
• eSports 2014 Summer Case
• Operation Bravo Case
• Operation Phoenix Weapon Case
• Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
• Revolver Case
• Winter Offensive Weapon Case
• Huntsman Weapon Case
• Operation Breakout Weapon Case
• Chroma Case
• Chroma 2 Case
• Chroma 3 Case
• Falchion Case
• Shadow Case
• Operation Wildfire Case
• Gamma Case
• Gamma 2 Case
• Spectrum Case
• Spectrum 2 Case
• Horizon Case
• Danger Zone Case
• Prisma Case
• Prisma 2 Case
• CS20 Case
• Shattered Web Case
• Fracture Case
• Operation Riptide Case
• Dreams & Nightmares Case

You can unbox any of the cases listed above for a chance to receive a knife. However, you will learn in the next section of the article that the odds of unboxing one are incredibly slim.

Now, let’s cut to the chase and answer the question you are looking for. In the old days, Valve had never released the official odds of unboxing a knife from a weapon case, so the community was creating rough estimates to at least have an idea of the chances.

However, when Counter-Strike was transitioning to the Chinese market, the Chinese government forced Valve to release the complete odds of Counter-Strike weapon cases since it is sort of related to gambling.

As a result, Valve became completely transparent and revealed the probabilities of CSGO weapon cases. Refer to the statistics below.

• Mil-Spec Grade: 79.92%
• Restricted Grade: 15.98%
• Classified Grade: 3.2%
• Covert Grade: 0.64%
• Exceedingly Rare (Knife): 0.26%

With these figures, we can conclude that the chance of getting a knife from a weapon case in CSGO is 0.26%. To put it in other words, players are expected to unbox 1 knife for every 384 cases they open.

Are CSGO Knife Chances Fair?

Generally speaking, these odds are absolutely terrible even though knives can cost up to thousands of dollars. Let’s crunch some numbers to put it into perspective. A weapon case costs around $0.50, and a case key which costs $2.50 is required to open a weapon case, so our total is at $3. Assuming we get a knife in 384 cases, we would have spent $1,152 in cases and keys to unbox our first knife.

However, the reality is, that not every knife is worth over $1,100. There are many low-tier knives that are only worth around $200, so even if you unbox a knife in the expected odds, you might find yourself at a $900 loss if the knife you unboxed is a bad one. Profiting from opening cases only happens if you get extremely lucky and hit one of these two outcomes.

• You unbox a knife in 0-200 cases, beating Valve’s odds.
• You unbox a top-tier knife such as a Sapphire or Ruby, which is worth over $10,000.

Still, the chances of you beating the house is still very unlikely. Overall, opening cases should be considered as a hobby instead of a sustainable way to make money.

Can You Increase CSGO Knife Chance?

No, there is no possible way for you to increase the chances of unboxing a knife in CSGO. It is quite odd that Valve has never intended to put a pity system that would give players escalating odds after every case they have unboxed.

So, the chances of you unboxing a knife are still 1 in 384, even if it is your first case or your 500th case. Many new players have unboxed a knife in their first 10 cases, while some veterans have not unboxed a single one after opening over 1,000 cases.

Unboxing a knife entirely comes down to luck, so you should pray to Lord Gaben every night if you plan on opening cases for a hobby.

Are The Chances The Same For Every Knife?

Several CSGO cases can drop various types of knives. For example, the original CSGO Weapon Case can drop the Karambit, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, M9 Bayonet, or the Bayonet. So, the chances of unboxing a knife in this case is still 0.26%. Since there are five possible knives, the odds of unboxing a specific one would be 0.26% divided equally by 5, which would be 0.052%.

Famous YouTuber Anomaly wanted to do an experiment to figure out what are the odds of pulling a knife in CSGO, so he decided to put the CSGO knife chance to the test. He gathered over 4,000 weapon cases and opened them all in one stream.

This experiment cost him a little over $10,000, and it took him over 24 hours to open all of these cases. Out of 4,058 cases, here is a summary of what skins he received.

• Mil-Spec Skins Unboxed: 3,264
• Restricted Skins Unboxed: 634
• Classified Skins Unboxed: 115
• Covert Skins Unboxed: 33
• Exceedingly Rare Skins Unboxed (Knife): 12

With this data, we can see that Anomaly unboxed 12 knives in 4,058 cases. When we run the numbers, we will get the odds of 0.296%, or 1 in 338. Earlier, we saw that Valve’s official case odds were 0.26% for a knife, or 1 in 384.

So, Anomaly actually got luckier than the official case odds. 4,000 cases is a pretty good sample size to conclude that Valve’s probabilities are not fake, and that they aren’t pulling any strings to mess with their players. Despite being considered lucky, Anomaly made a spreadsheet at the end of his live stream to calculate the results. He revealed he had actually lost over $6,000, even though he unboxed 12 knives.

Most of the knives he pulled were low-tier knives, so he was at a massive loss after opening all of those cases. This should be a reminder to you that opening cases is almost never profitable unless you are EXTREMELY lucky!

Considering we have just learned that the odds for unboxing a knife is 1 in 384, it is pretty safe to say that buying a knife is the safer alternative compared to gambling and trying your luck. As discussed earlier, you would statistically need over $1,100 to open 384 cases which is supposed to get you one knife. However, the keyword here is “supposed to.” There is no guarantee that if you spend $1,100 on cases that you will pull a knife, and there is also no guarantee that it will be a good knife.

On the other hand, $1,100 can already get you an A to S-Tier knife. You can grab a really nice M9 Bayonet with that amount of money, or a decent Karambit skin as well. There is also no risk at all, as you are buying the knife immediately and it will arrive in your inventory safe and sound.

However, there is always the option to gamble and by opening cases. Sure, there are some extremely lucky players who have unboxed Blue Gem Karambits worth over $150,000 from cases, but the odds of that happening are very low.

In 2024, around 700,000 weapon cases are unboxed daily, which is just incredible. If we are solely using Valve’s official case odds, then we can estimate that around 1,822 knives are unboxed every day. Knives are the rarest type of item in the game, and almost 2,000 of them are being unboxed every day. Still, most knives have high prices ranging from hundreds to thousands of dollars.

Realistically, the prices of knives will drop in the next few years if people keep unboxing cases. There is going to be a higher supply of knives, and this supply will eventually exceed the demand, leading to lower overall prices of knives.

We should also take a moment to think about how much money Valve is generating from these weapon cases. If 700,000 cases are opened in a single day, Valve would already make $1,750,000 from case keys alone!

In conclusion, the chances of unboxing a knife in CSGO is 1 in 384. Weighing in the average prices of knives, it is safe to say that these odds are extremely unfavorable for you, and the house will always win.

You would statistically have to spend over $1,000 to open a knife based on probability, and there is no guarantee the knife you receive is worth over $1,000. In fact, the majority of knives in the game are worth less than this amount.

Anomaly opened 4,000 cases, and defeated the odds, but still found himself down $6,100. We only recommend opening cases as a hobby, and only if you have additional money to spend. Opening cases should never be a way to reliably get money, and you must understand that this is an act of gambling that will likely put you at a loss.