Why Are Knife Skins So Expensive In CS2

The first and easiest answer to the question “Why are CSGO knives so expensive” can be answered by the rarity of unboxing a knife in Counter-Strike. 

The only way to obtain a Counter-Strike knife without buying it from another player is to unbox it from a weapon case. Weapon cases can cost anywhere around a dollar, and a case key is required to open it, which will cost another $2.50. 

As skin rarities go up in a weapon case, the odds of pulling it decreases. Counter-Strike knives fall under the “Extremely Rare Special Item” category, which is the highest one in weapon cases. 

The chances of pulling a knife from a case is around 0.26%, which means players only have a 1 in 385 chance to unbox one. Again, these odds are fixed odds, and Valve does not have a pity system or escalating odds like they do in Dota 2. There have been numerous community members who have opened 1,000 cases and never received a knife. 

With these numbers in mind, we can conclude that opening a case will take players at least $3, and they would statistically have to open 385 to open a knife. This puts the total cost to over $1,150, which should already explain why Counter-Strike knives can be very expensive. 

There are several factors that make knives pretty pricey. Let’s go over the most important ones:

Rarity

As we’ve discussed earlier, knives are incredibly rare because the odds of unboxing one is not even 1%. Even though over 700,000 cases are opened daily, there aren’t too many knives being pulled, so the supply of them is significantly lower than other weapon skins. The low unboxing odds of these knives make them more sought after.

Demand Dynamics

It is not a false claim to say that knives are the most desired type of item in Counter-Strike. As a result, the demand for knives is incredibly high. With the laws of basic economics, a good with high demand will definitely lead to higher prices. There aren’t enough knives in the game for all Counter-Strike players, so expensive prices must be applied to these skins.

Visual Appeal

The main reason everybody wants a knife is the aesthetic design and awesome pull-out animation knives offer. Nobody wants to have the boring default knives for the Terrorist and Counter-Terrorist sides that have bland animations. Pulling out a sleek knife skin makes the game more enjoyable, especially in downtimes when players aren’t shooting at each other. 

Higher Status

Owning a knife in Counter-Strike, especially a rare one with a high-quality skin, gives a player sort of a status symbol. Pulling out expensive knives will grab the attention of your teammates and enemies, and is a great way to showcase your wealth or dedication to the game; or both. Players with a knife skin worth thousands are either really good at the game, or really good at life to be able to afford it. 

The simple answer is yes. Just like any regular weapon in Counter-Strike, knives can also be covered in various skin designs, which are called knife skins. 

There are two factors surrounding knife skins that have a major effect on how the final knife product is priced. 

Rare Skins

In Counter-Strike, certain knife skins are rarer than others, even though the odds of unboxing them are usually almost identical. 

For example, we can take the Crimson Web and the Safari Mesh. It is obvious that the Crimson Web is more sought after compared to the Safari Mesh, which is hands down one of the worst knife skins in the game. Even if the skins are applied on the same knife, the prices of the Crimson Web could be more than double the price of the Safari Mesh. 

It is a fact that some knife skins look more appealing than others. A cooler-looking skin is more demanded by the player base. With basic laws of economics, a demanded skin will have its prices increased, making certain knife skins more expensive than others. 

Wear Condition

The wear condition, or float value of a skin, also plays a crucial role in determining its price. Just like regular weapon skins, knife skins are also assigned random float values that will determine its wear condition. 

Here is how float values are related to a skin’s wear condition:

• Factory New – 0 – 0.07.
• Minimal Wear – 0.07 – 0.15.
• Field-Tested – 0.15 – 0.38.
• Well-Worn – 0.38 – 0.45.
• Battle-Scarred – 0.45 – 1.

The lower the float value is, the higher the skin condition will turn out to be. The best possible condition for a skin is Factory New, while the worst possible condition is Battle-Scarred. The prices of knife skins will vary depending on the skin’s wear.

Let’s take the Karambit | Crimson Web as an example. The Crimson Web is a skin that is very price-sensitive to its float value. A Factory New version of the knife skin is going for around $5,500, while a Battle-Scarred version costs a little over $600. 

Even though these two knives have the same exact skin, the price differential is almost ten times, which is just absurd to think about. You might get extremely lucky by unboxing a Karambit | Crimson Web, but being greeted with a Battle-Scarred or Well-Worn version might take that smile out of your face.

Additionally, float values can also play a very important role in Factory New conditions. From the chart provided above, we can see that Factory New float values range from 0.00 to 0.07. The difference between a knife skin with 0.065 float value and a knife skin with 0.01 float value is completely different.

When dealing with high-tier skins, most collectors want the lowest float value possible, just for the title. Having the “#1 Lowest Float” of any skin is a huge flex, which is why the wealthiest collectors would pay thousands of extra dollars to have the lowest float in the game. 

On top of rare skins and minimal float value, certain knife skins also have rare patterns or phases that could make prices skyrocket. 

The first and most prominent example is the Case Hardened. Players can get 1 in 1,000 patterns that give the knife more blue than normal. This is called a Blue Gem. Getting the correct pattern can increase the knife’s value by over 1,000%, which is just insane. The most expensive Karambit | Case Hardened skin with the #387 pattern is worth at least $1,500,000, while a regular pattern would cost around $1,000.

However, the example mentioned above is the best possible pattern one could get on the Karambit | Case Hardened. There are other “Tier 1” or “Tier 2” Blue Gem patterns that have the chances of around 1 in 500. These high-tier Blue Gems can range over $50,000 to $200,000, which is still crazy to digest. 

There are also cases with Dopplers and Gamma Dopplers. These skins have more than four phases, with the rare ones being the Ruby, Sapphire, and Emerald phases. Normally, such rare phases are around three times the price of a regular phase. 

These rare Doppler and Gamma Doppler phases aren’t as rare as Case Hardened Blue Gems, but will still boost the price of a weapon skin by a huge margin. 

In conclusion, knives are one of the most sought after skin types in Counter-Strike. Owning a knife gives players higher visual appeal, and also develops a social status among other players, showcasing their wealth or commitment to the game. 

However, not everyone can afford a knife since most rare knife skins don’t come in cheap. The odds of unboxing a knife is already extremely low, with the chances being 1 in 385. Additionally, there are other factors such as rarity, demand, rare skins, wear conditions, and rare patterns that add more layers to pricing a knife properly. 

It is safe to say that players must be prepared to drop at least $1,000 for a premium knife skin with how expensive these skins are getting.